According to Bloomberg, Mayo expects large US banks to report earnings up 15% to 20% year-over-year. His thesis rests on two drivers: strong trading revenue from Wall Street desks and solid commercial loan growth. JPMorgan, Citi, Wells Fargo, Bank of America, and Goldman Sachs all report within hours of each other this week.
Bank earnings this week are a snapshot of the whole economy. If trading floors are generating outsized revenue while businesses keep borrowing, banks get growth from both finance and the real economy simultaneously. That's rare. It also signals that recession fears may be running ahead of actual economic data.
Citi still trades like a turnaround story, not a finished product. If Mayo is right and this earnings batch shows broad strength across big banks, Citi has more room to surprise than the giants everyone already trusts. JPMorgan beating confirms the script. Citi beating rewrites it.
Filed to the Markets desk · Jul 13