According to The Texas Tribune, the latest UT Austin poll has Paxton leading Talarico 43% to 42%—a margin well within the survey's 3.5-point error band. The same pollster showed Talarico up by 8 points in April. Republican voters have largely fallen in line behind Paxton following his contentious primary victory.
Texas Democrats have no margin for error in statewide races. A dead heat in June means national money will flow in, outside groups will mobilize, and turnout becomes the deciding factor. Paxton's legal baggage and primary wounds aren't disqualifying to the Republican base if party unity holds.
The number that matters is 84, not 43 or 42. If Paxton can reassemble the Republican vote this fast after a bitter intraparty brawl, the fantasy of a fractured GOP collapses. Talarico's path still exists, but only if he keeps this race about Paxton with swing voters. Once it snaps back into Texas's default setting—where Republicans grumble in the primary then vote Republican in November—he's done.
Filed to the Politics desk · Jun 23