According to CNBC, U.S. Central Command launched retaliatory strikes on Iranian targets in response to attacks on civilian-crewed shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. CENTCOM characterized the Iranian assault on the three vessels as a breach of the existing ceasefire and framed the American response as necessary to protect commercial traffic through one of the world's most critical waterways.

Iran will likely respond. Shipping traffic patterns will tell you whether the strait is actually closing or just getting more expensive to cross. The strait doesn't need to shut entirely to spook traders and force rerouting; even sporadic attacks on commercial vessels will drive up insurance premiums and energy costs. The real test is whether the U.S. can sustain a deterrent presence or whether this becomes a grinding cycle of tit-for-tat strikes.

Washington is trying to rebuild deterrence fast, but deterrence in the Gulf has a terrible track record. It tends to become a test of stamina. If commercial shipping keeps getting hit, the U.S. isn't policing a lane for a week. It's back in the business of underwriting a regional order with missiles, escorts, and the constant risk that one more strike forces the next one. That's not a policy. That's a commitment.